Serious mood swings

Considering the constant fluctuations in the exchange rate and the difficult economic situation in the country, with the arrival of autumn, many began to talk about what to expect from the dollar next year. Analysts are actively issuing a variety of forecasts, some are talking about a sharp rise in prices, others about a stable course. Further we offer you to familiarize yourself with some forecasts that are considered the most relevant.

The forecast of the dollar to hryvnia for 2019 from the government

The government has already laid down a budget for next year. Here is the dollar rate of 30 hryvnia and fifty kopecks.

“The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine approved the budget resolution for 2019, 2020 and 2021, in which it predicted the appreciation of the dollar to 31.8 hryvnia for the US currency. The decision was taken at a government meeting, reports “Economic truth”. (A source

However, as for 2019, the dollar should not rise above

“In 2020 – 31 hryvnia 40 kopecks for the American“ green ”, and in 2021 – 31 hryvnia 80 kopecks for a dollar. The average annual rate for 2018 is 29 hryvnia 30 kopecks per dollar “

The forecast of the hryvnia against the dollar 2019 from bankers

Bankers are not quite optimistic. They are sure that it is impossible to avoid a rise in price of either gas or a dollar, and both will hit the pockets of the population. Most likely, the price will rise precisely for the currency, and although it is likely that prices for products will fall, the communal apartment will most likely rise again in value. Thus, it will be possible to neutralize inflation, experts believe.

“If there is no IMF tranche, then the pressure on the economy will be great, which can accelerate the course to any value. There is a pessimistic scenario from the National Bank, and they registered there that the rate will be 40, ”said investment banker Sergey Furs.”

Dollar exchange rate forecast for 2019 from market experts

“I am afraid that the rate may surpass the mark of 35 UAH / $ 1 already in 2019 with the active development of crisis phenomena in the global economy. And maybe even more, ”summed up Andrei Shevchishin, senior analyst at Forex Club.

Financial market experts see different scenarios, and many of them are disappointing for the population of Ukraine. Already, the value of the currency has risen above the critical level of twenty-eight dollars, and this is only the beginning of autumn. There is an optimistic and pessimistic plan for the development of the situation in 2019.

“Analysts gave forecasts for the dollar rate at the end of 2018 and 2019. So, the pessimistic scenario of the consensus forecast assumes that at the end of 2018 the rate may be 30 UAH / USD, and at the end of 2019 – 34 UAH / USD. Under the optimistic scenario, at the end of 2018, the national currency exchange rate may amount to 27 UAH / USD, and at the end of 2019 – 28 UAH / USD. According to the consensus forecast, at the end of 2018, the median for the projected exchange rate of the national currency will be 29.15 UAH / USD, at the end of 2019 – 30.42 UAH / USD “(source

The forecast of the dollar from the NBU

The National Bank of Ukraine also considers three scenarios:

“If we focus on a negative outlook, by the end of the next year, 2019, the price of a currency may reach revenge of 39 hryvnia and 40 kopecks. That is the figure given in the official document; According to the results of the basic strategy, at the end of next year, the value of the dollar will be no more than 28 hryvnia and 70 kopecks. The negative scenario is considered in case of not receiving a tranche, and a sharp decline in the cost of metals, then the dollar will cost almost 40 hryvnia. ”

Serious mood swings

Ukrainians are hoping that there will not be a colossal jump in the dollar. Autumn rate fluctuations are an annual phenomenon, so you should not immediately tune in to a pessimistic mood.

Without a doubt, for the stability of Ukraine’s financial market, the Government needs to cooperate with international financial lenders, in particular, with the IMF. And for the sake of this cooperation, the Government takes many steps, which are not always popular. But even this does not give any guarantees that the money will still be received, and the National Bank of Ukraine should consider all possible outcomes of the situation. Therefore, a strategy has been developed, should be followed in the event that the tranche does not arrive, and world prices for the metal also fall.

Serious mood swings

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In case of a delay in the International Monetary Fund program, the National Bank will have to take the following measures:

  • Raise interest rates;
  • To mitigate the devaluation of the exchange rate by making currency investments.

If you focus on a negative outlook, then at the end of the next year, 2019, the price of the currency may reach revenge of 39 hryvnia and 40 kopecks. That is the figure given in the official document.

The good news is that such a scenario is not the only one for our country, three of them have developed:

  • According to the results of the basic strategy, at the end of next year, the value of the dollar will be no more than 28 hryvnia and 70 kopecks;
  • The negative scenario is considered in case of not receiving a tranche and a sharp decline in the cost of metals, then the dollar will cost almost 40 hryvnia;
  • The scenario, which provides only the absence of a tranche, but stable metal prices.

The National Bank built the prospects not only for the foreign exchange market, the development of scenarios was carried out for other key economic indicators – inflation, GDP, international reserve. A separate forecast revealed that there is a high probability of problems with the payment of external debt.

Experts say that if a country does not receive a cash tranche, then it is waiting for not only the currency but also the economic crisis, as well as problems in the banking system, the need for restructuring foreign debt. The real volume of GDP should be about 2.9%, if the tranche is not, then its size will drop to 0.6%, but if the price of metals falls, it can even reach a negative level of 0.5%.

If at present the basic international reserves of Ukraine amount to 21.5 billion dollars, next they will drop to 19 billion, and this is subject to the availability of a tranche, without it, the figure will fall to 9 billion, and the decrease in the value of the metal will reduce the value by another 1.6 billion The documents contain a number of tasks, as well as a scheme according to which the regulator should act, in the event of a situation.

What is the risk of a refusal of the International Monetary Fund for Ukraine?

  1. Ukraine will no longer be able to raise funds from the World Bank and the European Union.
  2. It is also unlikely that the state will continue to issue euro bonds in the period 2018-2019, because international investors have lost interest in the debts of states that are in the development stage.
  3. The first budget problems may arise already this year. In the absence of the placement of euro bonds, the likelihood of a sharp decline in the country’s currency account to zero is likely; this could happen this summer. Then the authorities simply will not have enough two billion dollars to fulfill the necessary obligations. On the one hand, such a situation will require significant hryvnia resources, on the other – it will inexorably flush the international reserve. If the investments are still attracted, there are chances that these problems can be postponed until the end of the year.
  4. The suspension of international support may cause panic among the population, and this will immediately be reflected on the rate of the national currency.
  5. Devaluation of the hryvnia will significantly increase the debt burden, both on the government and on the private sector, most likely, will require a new restructuring of external debt, and this is already a default. It will negatively affect the work of the country’s banking system.
  6. In the conditions of increased pressure on the exchange rate and inflation, the National Bank will be forced to resort to tight monetary policy, and this will adversely affect economic growth.

Alternative scenarios developed by the National Bank:

  • Given the uncertainty of the financial market and the possible increase in the volatility of the exchange rate, it is necessary to restrain pressure on inflation and accumulate reserves. To do this, you must stop easing currency restrictions, and keep rates high;
  • With the devaluation of the exchange rate without a threat to financial stability, volatility will increase, but remain acceptable. Then the bank should direct its actions to smooth out this volatility of the hryvnia exchange rate. To do this, it is necessary to raise key rates, and to ensure the moderation of currency investments;
  • There may be a liquidity crisis, a banking panic, if the hryvnia exchange rate significantly devaluates, as well as a significant capital outflow, in the case where the volume of interventions exceeds the threshold. Then the main tasks of the National Bank are to ensure the functioning of the payment system and the balance of the financial market of the country as a whole.

If there is no support from the International Monetary Fund, the state will have serious problems with foreign currency payments, and if we take into account the risks, then the prospect cannot be called bright. It remains to be hoped that the tranche will still go to Ukraine, and many problems can be avoided.

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